First expert elicitation of knowledge on possible drivers of observed increasing human cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe
Claude Saegerman
(1)
,
Marie-France Humblet
(2)
,
Marc Leandri
(3)
,
Gaëlle Gonzalez
(4)
,
Paul Heyman
(5)
,
Hein Sprong
(6)
,
Monique L'Hostis
(7, 8)
,
Sara Moutailler
(9)
,
Sarah Bonnet
(10, 11)
,
Nadia Haddad
(9)
,
Nathalie Boulanger
(12)
,
Stephen L. Leib
(13)
,
Thierry Hoch
(14)
,
Etienne Thiry
(1)
,
Laure Bournez
(15)
,
Jana Kerlik
(16)
,
Aurélie Velay-Rusch
(17)
,
Solveig Jore
(18)
,
Elsa Jourdain
(19)
,
Emmanuelle Gilot-Fromont
(20)
,
Katharina Brugger
(21)
,
Julia Geller
(22)
,
Marie Studahl
(23)
,
Nataša Knap
(24)
,
Tatjana Avšič-Županc
(24)
,
Daniel Růžek
(25, 26, 27)
,
Tizza P Zomer
(28)
,
René Bødker
(29)
,
Thomas F. H. Berger
(30)
,
Sandra Martin-Latil
(31)
,
Nick De Regge
(32)
,
Alice Raffetin
(33)
,
Sandrine Lacour
(4)
,
Matthias Klein
(34)
,
Tinne Lernout
(32)
,
Elsa Quillery
(35)
,
Zdeněk Hubálek
(36)
,
Francisco Ruiz-Fons
(37)
,
Agustín Estrada-Peña
(38)
,
Philippe Fravalo
(39, 40)
,
Pauline Kooh
(35)
,
Florence Etore
(35)
,
Bethan Purse
(41)
,
Céline M. Gossner
(42, 43)
1
FARAH -
Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals & Health
2 Université de Liège
3 SOURCE - SOUtenabilité et RésilienCE
4 VIRO - Virologie UMR1161
5 Queen Astrid Military Hospital [Brussels]
6 RIVM - National Institute for Public Health and the Environment [Bilthoven]
7 Retraité
8 ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique
9 BIPAR - Biologie moléculaire et immunologie parasitaires et fongiques
10 Écologie et Émergence des Pathogènes Transmis par les Arthropodes / Ecology and Emergence of Arthropod-borne Pathogens
11 DEPT SA - Département Santé Animale
12 Virulence bactérienne précoce : fonctions cellulaires et contrôle de l'infection aiguë et subaiguë
13 UNIBE - Universität Bern [Bern]
14 BIOEPAR - Biologie, Epidémiologie et analyse de risque en Santé Animale
15 LRFSN - Laboratoire de la rage et de la faune sauvage de Nancy
16 Department of Epidemiology, Regional Authority of Public Health in Banská Bystrica
17 Immuno-Rhumatologie Moléculaire
18 NIPH - Norwegian Institute of Public Health [Oslo]
19 UMR EPIA - Unité Mixte de Recherche d'Épidémiologie des maladies Animales et zoonotiques
20 LBBE - Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558
21 GÖG/ÖBIG (Gesundheit Österreich GmbH/Österreichisches Bundesinstitut für Gesundheitswesen)—Health Austria Ltd./Division of the Austrian Federal Institute for Health
22 National institute for health development Talinn
23 GU - Göteborgs Universitet = University of Gothenburg
24 University of Ljubljana
25 BIOLOGY CENTRE CAS - Institute of Parasitology [České Budějovice]
26 MUNI - Masaryk University [Brno]
27 VRI - Veterinary Research Institute [Brno]
28 Lyme Center Apeldoorn, Gelre Hospital
29 Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences
30 Agroscope
31 LSAl - Laboratoire de sécurité des aliments de Maisons-Alfort
32 Sciensano [Bruxelles]
33 CHIV - Centre Hospitalier Intercommunal Villeneuve-Saint-Georges
34 Klinikum der Universitat Munchen
35 DER - Direction de l'Evaluation des Risques
36 IVB / CAS - Institute of Vertebrate Biology of the Czech Academy of Sciences
37 IREC - Catalonia Institute for Energy Research
38 University of Zaragoza - Universidad de Zaragoza [Zaragoza]
39 CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]
40 Metabiot - Metabiot
41 UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
42 ECDC - European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [Stockholm, Sweden]
43 MUMC - Maastricht University Medical Centre
2 Université de Liège
3 SOURCE - SOUtenabilité et RésilienCE
4 VIRO - Virologie UMR1161
5 Queen Astrid Military Hospital [Brussels]
6 RIVM - National Institute for Public Health and the Environment [Bilthoven]
7 Retraité
8 ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique
9 BIPAR - Biologie moléculaire et immunologie parasitaires et fongiques
10 Écologie et Émergence des Pathogènes Transmis par les Arthropodes / Ecology and Emergence of Arthropod-borne Pathogens
11 DEPT SA - Département Santé Animale
12 Virulence bactérienne précoce : fonctions cellulaires et contrôle de l'infection aiguë et subaiguë
13 UNIBE - Universität Bern [Bern]
14 BIOEPAR - Biologie, Epidémiologie et analyse de risque en Santé Animale
15 LRFSN - Laboratoire de la rage et de la faune sauvage de Nancy
16 Department of Epidemiology, Regional Authority of Public Health in Banská Bystrica
17 Immuno-Rhumatologie Moléculaire
18 NIPH - Norwegian Institute of Public Health [Oslo]
19 UMR EPIA - Unité Mixte de Recherche d'Épidémiologie des maladies Animales et zoonotiques
20 LBBE - Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558
21 GÖG/ÖBIG (Gesundheit Österreich GmbH/Österreichisches Bundesinstitut für Gesundheitswesen)—Health Austria Ltd./Division of the Austrian Federal Institute for Health
22 National institute for health development Talinn
23 GU - Göteborgs Universitet = University of Gothenburg
24 University of Ljubljana
25 BIOLOGY CENTRE CAS - Institute of Parasitology [České Budějovice]
26 MUNI - Masaryk University [Brno]
27 VRI - Veterinary Research Institute [Brno]
28 Lyme Center Apeldoorn, Gelre Hospital
29 Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences
30 Agroscope
31 LSAl - Laboratoire de sécurité des aliments de Maisons-Alfort
32 Sciensano [Bruxelles]
33 CHIV - Centre Hospitalier Intercommunal Villeneuve-Saint-Georges
34 Klinikum der Universitat Munchen
35 DER - Direction de l'Evaluation des Risques
36 IVB / CAS - Institute of Vertebrate Biology of the Czech Academy of Sciences
37 IREC - Catalonia Institute for Energy Research
38 University of Zaragoza - Universidad de Zaragoza [Zaragoza]
39 CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]
40 Metabiot - Metabiot
41 UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
42 ECDC - European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [Stockholm, Sweden]
43 MUMC - Maastricht University Medical Centre
Claude Saegerman
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- Function : Correspondent author
- PersonId : 1076831
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Sara Moutailler
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 1136799
- IdHAL : sara-moutailler
- ORCID : 0000-0003-3010-6968
- IdRef : 121112853
Sarah Bonnet
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 1232025
- IdHAL : sarah-bonnet
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6365-6117
Nadia Haddad
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 907919
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7079-8319
- IdRef : 152463984
Nathalie Boulanger
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 950854
Thierry Hoch
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 1145419
- IdHAL : thoch
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7916-1936
Laure Bournez
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 761893
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6578-4892
Elsa Jourdain
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 744373
- IdHAL : elsa-jourdain
- ORCID : 0000-0003-1356-1694
- IdRef : 076026663
Emmanuelle Gilot-Fromont
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 21719
- IdHAL : emmanuelle-gilotfromont
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0011-7519
- IdRef : 087869012
Sandrine Lacour
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 748544
- IdHAL : sandrine-a-lacour
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7040-0398
- IdRef : 113599056
Elsa Quillery
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 1240023
- IdRef : 240584775
Pauline Kooh
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 1069729
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7106-9617
Abstract
Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral disease endemic in Eurasia. The virus is mainly transmitted to humans via ticks and occasionally via the consumption of unpasteurized milk products. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported an increase in TBE incidence over the past years in Europe as well as the emergence of the disease in new areas. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigated the drivers of TBE emergence and increase in incidence in humans through an expert knowledge elicitation. We listed 59 possible drivers grouped in eight domains and elicited forty European experts to: (i) allocate a score per driver, (ii) weight this score within each domain, and (iii) weight the different domains and attribute an uncertainty level per domain. An overall weighted score per driver was calculated, and drivers with comparable scores were grouped into three terminal nodes using a regression tree analysis. The drivers with the highest scores were: (i) changes in human behavior/activities; (ii) changes in eating habits or consumer demand; (iii) changes in the landscape; (iv) influence of humidity on the survival and transmission of the pathogen; (v) difficulty to control reservoir(s) and/or vector(s); (vi) influence of temperature on virus survival and transmission; (vii) number of wildlife compartments/groups acting as reservoirs or amplifying hosts; (viii) increase of autochthonous wild mammals; and (ix) number of tick species vectors and their distribution. Our results support researchers in prioritizing studies targeting the most relevant drivers of emergence and increasing TBE incidence.
Origin : Files produced by the author(s)
Licence : CC BY - Attribution
Licence : CC BY - Attribution