%0 Journal Article %T First expert elicitation of knowledge on possible drivers of observed increasing human cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe %+ Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals & Health (FARAH) %+ Université de Liège %+ SOUtenabilité et RésilienCE (SOURCE) %+ Virologie UMR1161 (VIRO) %+ Queen Astrid Military Hospital [Brussels] %+ National Institute for Public Health and the Environment [Bilthoven] (RIVM) %+ Retraité %+ École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique (ONIRIS) %+ Biologie moléculaire et immunologie parasitaires et fongiques (BIPAR) %+ Écologie et Émergence des Pathogènes Transmis par les Arthropodes / Ecology and Emergence of Arthropod-borne Pathogens %+ Département Santé Animale (DEPT SA) %+ Virulence bactérienne précoce : fonctions cellulaires et contrôle de l'infection aiguë et subaiguë %+ Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE) %+ Biologie, Epidémiologie et analyse de risque en Santé Animale (BIOEPAR) %+ Laboratoire de la rage et de la faune sauvage de Nancy (LRFSN) %+ Department of Epidemiology, Regional Authority of Public Health in Banská Bystrica %+ Immuno-Rhumatologie Moléculaire %+ Norwegian Institute of Public Health [Oslo] (NIPH) %+ Unité Mixte de Recherche d'Épidémiologie des maladies Animales et zoonotiques (UMR EPIA) %+ Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558 (LBBE) %+ GÖG/ÖBIG (Gesundheit Österreich GmbH/Österreichisches Bundesinstitut für Gesundheitswesen)—Health Austria Ltd./Division of the Austrian Federal Institute for Health %+ National institute for health development Talinn %+ University of Gothenburg (GU) %+ University of Ljubljana %+ Institute of Parasitology [České Budějovice] (BIOLOGY CENTRE CAS) %+ Masaryk University [Brno] (MUNI) %+ Veterinary Research Institute [Brno] (VRI) %+ Lyme Center Apeldoorn, Gelre Hospital %+ Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences %+ Agroscope %+ Laboratoire de sécurité des aliments de Maisons-Alfort (LSAl) %+ Sciensano [Bruxelles] %+ Centre Hospitalier Intercommunal Villeneuve-Saint-Georges (CHIV) %+ Klinikum der Universitat Munchen %+ Direction de l'Evaluation des Risques (DER) %+ Institute of Vertebrate Biology of the Czech Academy of Sciences (IVB / CAS) %+ Catalonia Institute for Energy Research (IREC) %+ University of Zaragoza - Universidad de Zaragoza [Zaragoza] %+ Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM) %+ Metabiot (Metabiot) %+ UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology %+ European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [Stockholm, Sweden] (ECDC) %+ Maastricht University Medical Centre (MUMC) %A Saegerman, Claude %A Humblet, Marie-France %A Leandri, Marc %A Gonzalez, Gaëlle %A Heyman, Paul %A Sprong, Hein %A L'Hostis, Monique %A Moutailler, Sara %A Bonnet, Sarah %A Haddad, Nadia %A Boulanger, Nathalie %A Leib, Stephen L. %A Hoch, Thierry %A Thiry, Etienne %A Bournez, Laure %A Kerlik, Jana %A Velay-Rusch, Aurélie %A Jore, Solveig %A Jourdain, Elsa %A Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle %A Brugger, Katharina %A Geller, Julia %A Studahl, Marie %A Knap, Nataša %A Avšič-Županc, Tatjana %A Růžek, Daniel %A Zomer, Tizza P %A Bødker, René %A Berger, Thomas F. H. %A Martin-Latil, Sandra %A De Regge, Nick %A Raffetin, Alice %A Lacour, Sandrine %A Klein, Matthias %A Lernout, Tinne %A Quillery, Elsa %A Hubálek, Zdeněk %A Ruiz-Fons, Francisco %A Estrada-Peña, Agustín %A Fravalo, Philippe %A Kooh, Pauline %A Etore, Florence %A Purse, Bethan %A Gossner, Céline M. %Z This research received no external funding. %< avec comité de lecture %@ 1999-4915 %J Viruses %I MDPI %V 15 %N 3 %P 791 %8 2023-03-20 %D 2023 %R 10.3390/v15030791 %M 36992499 %K tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) %K flavivirus %K TBEV %K genus Ixodes %K drivers %K expert elicitation %K ticks %K multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) %K clustering analysis %K sensitivity analysis %K uncertainty %K Dermacentor reticulatus %Z Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologieJournal articles %X Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral disease endemic in Eurasia. The virus is mainly transmitted to humans via ticks and occasionally via the consumption of unpasteurized milk products. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported an increase in TBE incidence over the past years in Europe as well as the emergence of the disease in new areas. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigated the drivers of TBE emergence and increase in incidence in humans through an expert knowledge elicitation. We listed 59 possible drivers grouped in eight domains and elicited forty European experts to: (i) allocate a score per driver, (ii) weight this score within each domain, and (iii) weight the different domains and attribute an uncertainty level per domain. An overall weighted score per driver was calculated, and drivers with comparable scores were grouped into three terminal nodes using a regression tree analysis. The drivers with the highest scores were: (i) changes in human behavior/activities; (ii) changes in eating habits or consumer demand; (iii) changes in the landscape; (iv) influence of humidity on the survival and transmission of the pathogen; (v) difficulty to control reservoir(s) and/or vector(s); (vi) influence of temperature on virus survival and transmission; (vii) number of wildlife compartments/groups acting as reservoirs or amplifying hosts; (viii) increase of autochthonous wild mammals; and (ix) number of tick species vectors and their distribution. Our results support researchers in prioritizing studies targeting the most relevant drivers of emergence and increasing TBE incidence. %G English %2 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04037581/document %2 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04037581/file/viruses-15-00791.pdf %L hal-04037581 %U https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04037581 %~ IRD %~ PASTEUR %~ ANSES %~ RIIP %~ CNRS %~ INRIA %~ UNIV-LYON1 %~ CNAM %~ UNIV-STRASBG %~ SANTE_PUB_INSERM %~ UNAM %~ BIPAR %~ UVSQ %~ BIOENVIS %~ UNIV-PARIS-SACLAY %~ AGREENIUM %~ SITE-ALSACE %~ INRIA-AUT %~ VETAGRO-LBBE %~ LBBE %~ VETAGRO-SUP %~ ENVA %~ UDL %~ UNIV-LYON %~ INRAE %~ UNIV-PARIS %~ UNIVERSITE-PARIS %~ UMREPIA %~ UVSQ-UPSACLAY %~ METABIOT %~ SOURCE %~ TEST3-HALCNRS %~ TEST4-HALCNRS %~ HESAM-CNAM %~ HESAM %~ VIRO %~ PASTEUR_UMR2000 %~ ECO-EMER-PATHOG-ARTHROP %~ EPIMAI %~ SAPS %~ ONIRIS %~ BIOEPAR %~ TEST5-HALCNRS